Analysis of Robinhood Markets, Inc.’s Q2 2026 10-Q
Filing dated 29 July 2026 for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 · checked against the earnings calls on 28 April and 29 July · read in October 2026 · updated 27 October
Where the filing and the story diverge
Robinhood’s Q2 was a record: revenue up 32% and earnings per share up 48%. The 10-Q shows three things the headline does not: $129M of one-off gains from deconsolidating its RVI fund, credit losses doubling as the Gold Card book grows, and transaction revenue rotating from crypto into prediction markets while its largest market maker, Citadel Securities, rose to 16% of revenue.
- Three findings: $129M of one-off gains sit inside Q2 earnings; Credit losses doubled as the Gold Card book expanded; Prediction markets grew as crypto fell, and Citadel’s share rose. Each is set out below with the figure, where it sits in the filing and what would close it.
- Since the read. Robinhood reported Q3 results on 27 October: record revenue of $1.42B, up 12%, but diluted EPS down 16% to $0.51.
- On the calls. 2 of 3 findings were sidestepped or never asked.
- Management’s record. 1 kept on earlier promises.
- What it does not show. Nothing here shows a misstatement, inadequate provisioning or regulatory action.
- Q2 revenue
- $1,308M, up 32%
- Adjusted EBITDA
- $741M, a 57% margin
- Diluted EPS
- $0.62, up 48%
- Funded customers
- 28.4M
- Total platform assets
- $368.7B
Area by area: what is solid and what is stretched
Robinhood’s growth and liquidity are strong. The risk is in earnings quality, a young credit book, and revenue that depends on a few counterparties and on regulators.
Three findings, ranked by importance
Each is set out in full below: what the filing shows, the numbers, the evidence and what would close it.
$129M of one-off gains sit inside Q2 earnings
A $106M gain on deconsolidating the RVI fund plus $23M of related equity gains made up 18% of Q2 pre-tax income. Without them, EPS is closer to $0.48 to $0.51 than $0.62.
Other income, net jumped to $135M from $3M a year earlier. Almost all of it is one-off: a $106M gain when Robinhood sold part of its stake in Robinhood Ventures Fund I and stopped consolidating it, and $23M of unrealised and realised gains on equity securities. Together that is $129M, 18% of $709M pre-tax income, or about $0.14 a diluted share before tax. Strip it out and Q2 EPS is roughly $0.48 untaxed, or about $0.51 if taxed at the quarter’s 19% rate (our calculation). The retained interest, worth $437M at 30 June, is now marked to fair value through earnings every quarter, so it will keep moving reported profit up or down.
The gain is disclosed in the cash flow statement and Note 4. Adjusted EBITDA of $741M is not affected, so the EBITDA headline is cleaner than reported EPS.
Evidence“During the three months ended June 30, 2026, we liquidated a portion of our interest in RVI resulting in the deconsolidation of RVI in June 2026. Upon deconsolidation, we have elected to account for our retained interest in RVI under the fair value option.”Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 1, Description of Business
Credit losses doubled as the Gold Card book expanded
The card book reached $1,457M. Past-due balances rose to 6% from 5% at year-end and the share below a 640 FICO score doubled to 4%, while a $500M card-backed bond followed in July.
The provision for credit losses doubled to $56M from $28M, and to $92M from $52M over six months. Most of it relates to Robinhood Credit’s card loans, which totalled $1,457M at 30 June ($1,243M on the balance sheet, $214M off it). The allowance for card losses rose to $104M from $24M a year earlier, about 7% of the book. Past-due balances rose to 6% of the book from 5% at December, and accounts with FICO scores below 640 rose to 4% from 2%. The Credit Card Funding Trust bought $6,152M of card receivables over six months against $5,714M collected, and on 23 July a $500M asset-backed security was issued against the book.
The allowance is growing faster than the book, which is conservative. But the book is young, so loss rates are not yet seasoned, and the funding now depends partly on the ABS market.
Evidence“Additionally, we might seek to fund our Robinhood Credit business through securitizations, including through warehouse facilities or the issuance of asset-backed securities.”Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, Part II, Item 1A, Risk Factors
Prediction markets grew as crypto fell, and Citadel’s share rose
Event contracts reached 12% of revenue while crypto revenue fell 38% to $100M. Citadel Securities rose to 16% of total net revenue from 13%.
Transaction revenue grew 44% to $776M, but its make-up changed: event contracts (prediction markets) brought in $156M, more than ten times a year earlier, while crypto fell 38% to $100M. The 10-Q warns that regulatory action, litigation or changes in law could stop Robinhood offering event contracts. At the same time Citadel Securities, the largest market maker routing its customers’ orders, rose to 16% of total net revenue from 13%, even as market makers and exchanges together fell to 47% from 52%.
Management points to diversification: 13 businesses now above $100M of annual revenue run-rate. The question is how much of the event-contract growth is sports-driven, and whether it lasts.
Evidence“Our ability to offer event contracts is subject to the outcome of currently ongoing and potential future regulatory enforcement actions and litigation, as well as potential changes in federal or state law, that could immediately or subsequently prevent us from offering, or continuing to offer, event contracts.”Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, Part II, Item 1A, Risk Factors
Other findings, checked and set aside
Each item was tested against the filing. None changes the lead findings above.
| Item | What the filing shows, and why it is not a lead finding |
|---|---|
| Convertible notes and capped calls | $2.2B at 0%, conversion at about $174 a share; capped calls limit dilution up to about $301. Cheap funding, used partly for buybacks. |
| WonderFi acquisition | $178M paid, $120M booked as goodwill; preliminary, to be re-checked as the allocation is finalised. |
| Rothera joint venture | Robinhood owns 90% with SIG; now a top-three prediction-market exchange. Related-party routing economics are not split out. |
| Reduction in force | About 10% of staff; $23M restructuring charge in Q2. |
| Tax rate | About 19% in Q2 against about 13% a year earlier; normalising from a low base. |
| Prior acquisitions | TradePMR and Bitstamp purchase price allocations finalised with no significant change. |
What Robinhood disclosed
The read was completed in October 2026, before this update. Each lead finding against what the company then disclosed, including what the read missed.
Robinhood reported Q3 results on 27 October: record revenue of $1.42B, up 12%, but diluted EPS down 16% to $0.51. Each of the read’s three findings moved again in the quarter. Separately, Robinhood’s filed 8-K and its own earnings presentation disagree on its new adjusted earnings measure. Two details, the card delinquency rate and Citadel Securities’ share of revenue, wait for the Q3 10-Q.
Lead findings against what was disclosed
3 items tracked$129M of one-off gains sit inside Q2 earnings
The RVI mark moved earnings again, this time the other way: Q3 included $67M of unrealised losses, $0.07 a share, mainly on Robinhood Ventures Fund I, after $129M of gains ($0.14 a share) in Q2. Robinhood introduced Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted EPS this quarter, which strip out these marks along with other items. Adjusted EPS was $0.60 for Q3. For Q2, the 8-K exhibit filed with the SEC shows $0.50 ($454M), while the earnings presentation on Robinhood’s site shows $0.55 ($500M); Q3 Adjusted Net Income is $550M in the filing and $542M in the presentation. The difference is the sign of the tax adjustment. We cite the filed figures and have asked Robinhood which version is authoritative.
Credit losses doubled as the Gold Card book expanded
The credit loss provision rose again, to $71M from $56M in Q2 and $26M a year earlier, as the card book kept growing: the card funding trust bought $4.7B of receivables in the quarter against $4.2B collected. The delinquency rate is not in the release and is due in the 10-Q.
Prediction markets grew as crypto fell, and Citadel’s share rose
The rotation continued: event-contract revenue rose to $173M from $156M in Q2, while crypto revenue fell 55% from a year earlier to $120M. On the call, management said non-sports contracts were about 30% of prediction markets in Q3, up from 15% in Q2. Citadel Securities’ share of revenue is not in the release and is due in the 10-Q, so this finding is only partly scored.
What management said about each finding
Checked against the calls on 28 April and 29 July.
Neither management nor analysts mentioned the deconsolidation gain on the call; RVI came up only as a product for customers.
Credit losses and delinquency were not discussed. Management mentioned the Gold Card only for passing 1 million cardholders and $17B of annualised purchase volume.
Asked about durability after the World Cup and outside sports, the CEO pointed to football, the midterms and constant events, but gave no split of revenue by market type.
“I think the great thing about prediction markets is there's events all the time.”
9 disclosures moved
10-Q Q2 2026 compared with the 10-K for FY2025.
| Status | Disclosure | Before | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| New | Convertible senior notes due 2029 Note 11 | Not present | $2,170M carrying value; 0% coupon |
| Removed | RVI consolidated Note 4 | Consolidated fund | Deconsolidated; $437M retained interest at fair value |
| Changed | Receivables from users Balance sheet | $17,994M | $22,799M |
| Changed | Securities loaned Balance sheet | $11,626M | $20,536M |
| Changed | Securities borrowed Balance sheet | $2,408M | $6,036M |
| Changed | Payables to users Balance sheet | $11,986M | $17,243M |
| Changed | Total assets Balance sheet | $38,137M | $56,550M |
| Changed | Goodwill Note 5 | $385M | $516M |
| Changed | Card past due / FICO below 640 Note 7 | 5% / 2% | 6% / 4% |
The balance sheet grew 48% in six months, driven by customer activity and new funding: $2.2B of convertibles, a larger margin book and much more securities lending. RVI left the balance sheet, and Citadel’s share of revenue rose.
5 markers for 27 October
Set before the numbers, so the read can be checked afterwards.
| Marker | Now | Gap widens if | Gap closes if | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings without one-offs | Q2 EPS $0.62; about $0.48 to $0.51 without the gains | Q3 EPS again relies on gains or RVI marks | Q3 EPS holds near Q2 without one-offs | Closed |
| ResultQ3 diluted EPS was $0.51 after a $0.07 loss on the RVI mark, so it no longer leaned on gains. Without that mark it was about $0.58, above our $0.48 to $0.51 estimate of Q2 without one-offs. Robinhood's new Adjusted EPS is a different measure (it also adds back amortisation and some share-based pay): $0.60 for Q3, and for Q2 $0.50 in the 8-K exhibit filed with the SEC but $0.55 in the earnings presentation, because one tax line has the opposite sign. Corrected 28 Oct 2026: an earlier version of this line called the $0.50 inside our estimate without noting the measures differ; a later version described the $0.50 as coming from a faulty release, when it is the SEC-filed figure. Sources: Q3 2026 8-K Exhibit 99.1 as filed, and earnings presentation, 27 Oct 2026. | ||||
| Credit provision and delinquency | $56M provision; 6% past due | Provision and past-due rate keep rising | Delinquency stabilises as the book seasons | Awaiting |
| Event-contract revenue | $156M in Q2 | Falls sharply after the World Cup | Holds near Q2 with more non-sports volume | Closed |
| Resultevent-contract revenue rose to $173M from $156M in Q2. The release does not split sports from non-sports volume. Source: Q3 2026 results release, 27 Oct 2026. | ||||
| Citadel Securities share of revenue | 16% | Rises further | Falls back toward 13% | Awaiting |
| Net deposits | $21.7B in Q2; July tracking ~$4B | Q3 well below the Q2 pace | Q3 close to the Q2 run-rate | Widened |
| ResultQ3 net deposits were $15.7B, down 28% from $21.7B in Q2. From July the figure includes Trump Account contributions and Treasury seed funding, which Q2's did not, so on a like-for-like basis the slowdown is larger than the headline shows. Source: Q3 2026 results release, 27 Oct 2026. | ||||
These are monitoring checks set before the numbers, not forecasts of a loss or breach.
How the read is scoring
Markers and promises set before the numbers, marked as results come in.
| Type | Item | Set before the numbers | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marker | Earnings without one-offs | Q2 EPS $0.62; about $0.48 to $0.51 without the gains | Closed Q3 diluted EPS was $0.51 after a $0.07 loss on the RVI mark, so it no longer leaned on gains. Without that mark it was about $0.58, above our $0.48 to $0.51 estimate of Q2 without one-offs. Robinhood's new Adjusted EPS is a different measure (it also adds back amortisation and some share-based pay): $0.60 for Q3, and for Q2 $0.50 in the 8-K exhibit filed with the SEC but $0.55 in the earnings presentation, because one tax line has the opposite sign. Corrected 28 Oct 2026: an earlier version of this line called the $0.50 inside our estimate without noting the measures differ; a later version described the $0.50 as coming from a faulty release, when it is the SEC-filed figure. Sources: Q3 2026 8-K Exhibit 99.1 as filed, and earnings presentation, 27 Oct 2026. |
| Marker | Event-contract revenue | $156M in Q2 | Closed event-contract revenue rose to $173M from $156M in Q2. The release does not split sports from non-sports volume. Source: Q3 2026 results release, 27 Oct 2026. |
| Marker | Net deposits | $21.7B in Q2; July tracking ~$4B | Widened Q3 net deposits were $15.7B, down 28% from $21.7B in Q2. From July the figure includes Trump Account contributions and Treasury seed funding, which Q2's did not, so on a like-for-like basis the slowdown is larger than the headline shows. Source: Q3 2026 results release, 27 Oct 2026. |
What management said, and what happened
First Helmledgers review of Robinhood: one promise from the April (Q1) results checked so far.
| Topic | What management said | What happened | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expense guidance | Apr: 2026 adjusted operating expenses and stock pay of $2.7B to $2.825B, excluding Rothera and WonderFi | Lowered to $2.675B to $2.775B in July, now including Rothera and WonderFi. | Kept |
| Commitment | What they said | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 adjusted operating expenses and stock pay | $2.675B to $2.775B | Awaiting |
| New businesses | Efficiencies self-fund Rothera and WonderFi costs | Awaiting |
| Dilution | No net dilution from the convertibles until the share price exceeds about $300 | Awaiting |
| July trading | Volumes in a similar area to the record Q2 across equities, options and event contracts | Awaiting |
6 questions, checked against the call
Raised by the 10-Q. To be tested again at Q3 2026 results on 27 October.
Investor relations: Investor Relations, Robinhood Markets · ir@robinhood.com
What this does and does not show
Retained RVI interest now moves earnings every quarter
Robinhood kept a $437M interest in RVI, measured at fair value through earnings. Any change in RVI’s share price now flows straight into reported profit.
Not raised.
What would resolve this: Marks are shown separately or the stake is reduced.
Expense guidance leaves out the volatile items
Full-year adjusted operating expenses and stock pay were lowered to $2.675B to $2.775B, but the guide excludes the provision for credit losses and significant regulatory expenses, among others.
Management said efficiencies are self-funding Rothera and WonderFi.
What would resolve this: Excluded items stay small in Q3 and Q4.
Deposits slowing after a record quarter
Q2 net deposits were $21.7B. The CEO said July net deposits were tracking towards the $4 billion area, below the Q2 monthly pace.
Stated by management.
What would resolve this: Q3 net deposits stay close to the Q2 run-rate.
Nothing here shows a misstatement, inadequate provisioning or regulatory action.
The gains and credit metrics are disclosed, and liquidity is strong.
- Q3 earnings hold up without one-off gains
- Card delinquency stabilises as the book seasons
- Event-contract revenue proves durable beyond sports
- Citadel’s share of revenue falls back
- Net deposits stay close to the Q2 pace
- New one-off gains or RVI marks drive EPS again
- Credit provision and delinquency keep climbing
- Regulators restrict event contracts
- Concentration on a single market maker rises further
- Excluded expense items turn out large
Every figure ties back to the filing
| Robinhood Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 | Open ↗ |
| Q2 2026 earnings release | Open ↗ |
| Q2 2026 earnings call, 29 July 2026 | Third-party transcripts |
| Q1 2026 earnings call, 28 April 2026 | Third-party transcripts |
Helmledgers reads the full 10-Q, including the notes, and ties every figure to the statement or note it comes from. The Q2 call is read against the filing to record what management answered, sidestepped or left out. Quotes are checked word for word against the filing and the transcript before release. This is an accounting read of public SEC filings, not an audit opinion and not investment advice.
- Severity
- High: material effect on cash, debt or reported results. Medium: worth tracking, smaller or less certain effect.
- On the call
- Direct answer, Partly answered (topic addressed, figure missing), Sidestepped (raised but not answered) or Not asked.
- Since the read
- Confirmed by a later disclosure, Escalated (grown since), Open (untested) or Missed (not flagged by the read).
- Said versus done
- Kept, Slipped (late), Changed (plan or terms changed), Missed or Reversed.
- Markers
- Measurable checks set before results, each with what would widen or close the gap. Scored after the next results.
- Closes if
- The evidence that would resolve a finding.
Helmledgers and its analysts hold no position in Robinhood (HOOD) securities.
This is an accounting read of public SEC filings. It is not an audit opinion and not investment advice.